By Chris James
The Age has thrown another curve ball into the debate about the future of Victoria’s commercial ports.
In Saturday’s Age, it is suggested that key stevedore Asciano has made a submission to an expressions of interest process into expanding Melbourne’s container capacity that the Victorian Government decommission the Port of Melbourne by 2040, while moving container trade to Geelong and Hastings.
The benefits of this would include more land for residential dwellings in Melbourne, a regional development bonus for Geelong and Hastings, and allegedly less congestion for Melbourne. Oh, and it won’t spoil the views of those who live in Williamstown, which would otherwise be incommoded by the sight of working cranes at Webb Dock.
It could also appeal to a narrowly-elected Labor or Coalition Government desperate for Green support in a hung Parliament.
However, this process is not as simple as it sounds. It will involve:
- A channel widening process for Corio Bay, something that would be very unpalatable to the Greens.
- More truck traffic in the Geelong and Hastings regions – don’t forget that Melbourne is likely to be shifting 8 million containers by 2030, up from 2.2 million now. This is different from Hastings being a supplementary port to Melbourne.
- More trucks dragged across suburban Melbourne to actually get to Geelong and Hastings, leading to possibly more truck movements, not less – remember that Melbourne’s freeways intersect nicely behind the current Port of Melbourne.
- Moving the national rail freight hub from Dynon railyards, which sits conveniently behind the current Port.
- Possibly not meeting the Government’s target for increased rail movement of cargo, although connecting Hastings to the national standard gauge rail network between Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney is a monster problem we face anyway under current plans. There are serious questions as to whether this could be done either via a rail line from Dandenong to Dynon, having to pass through Flinders Street Station and the CBD, or to Donnybrook via Eastlink – Eastlink is apparently too narrow in parts for a heavy gauge rail line, which would also have to negotiate the green wedge through Eltham and Warrandyte, and the northern suburbs of Melbourne. Tunnels are most likely out of the question because freight trains can only easily handle a one per cent gradient.
- Hastings’ RAMSAR-listed wetlands, the status of which is sure to provoke environmental opposition to any major expansion of Hastings.
- The billions upon billions of dollars worth of sunk costs that have been poured into the Swanson/Dynon precinct, not only by the stevedores, but by exporters and importers who have built their own container hubs within a convenient distance of the Port.
Most current industry thinking is that the Port of Melbourne remain where it is, with Geelong continuing to specialise as a bulk port, Webb Dock taking up excess container capacity at Melbourne around 2015, and Hastings coming on stream as a supplementary container port around 2030.
VECCI largely supports this vision, although we believe that options for container movements at Geelong should be investigated, given its proximity to the national rail network – although shifting the car trade to Geelong faces the natural barrier of high winds in Corio Bay, which could menace car carriers with a high centre of gravity.
It will also raise in some people’s minds the issue of why we all went through the drama of channel deepening. This is probably a red herring, as channel deepening will have more than paid for itself by 2040.
Channel deepening was actually needed five to ten years ago, with 60 percent of the vessels entering the Port in the March quarter 2009 potentially draught-affected, and has since been justified by the arrival of massive ships such as the Xin Yan Tai, that would not have got through the heads otherwise.
A vessel is using the extra draught every second day, which will increase over the project’s life.
Whatever the case, don’t expect any controversial decisions out of the State Government before the 2010 State Election.
What are your thoughts on this key issue for Victoria’s economic future? Let us know in comments below.
