By Darin Ritchie
While the result from VECCI’s latest poll show half of respondents support Australia maintaining its current rate of population growth, there is concern that a population of 35 million by 2050 would put pressure on our natural resources, infrastructure and housing.
The implication from this poll and others like it is that unless Government’s are able to show they can maintain and invest in public infrastructure, sustainably manage our natural resources, and can maintain affordability in our major cities, then public support for a larger population, and more specifically migration, will decline.
Reduced immigration would have significant consequences for Australia’s skill and labour needs and our international competitiveness. The long term consequence of lower growth means facing even harder public policy choices in dealing with our ageing population. Fewer workers means lower tax revenues, while at the same time a larger number of older Australians increases demand for health and aged care spending.
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When asked, “Do you think Australia should maintain its current rate of growth which could result in a population of 35 million in 2050?”, 50% said yes, 47% said no and 3% were not sure.
Of those who said yes, two thirds (67%) believed a larger population would make Australia more globally competitive, 27% believed it would alleviate the cost of an ageing population and 7% believed we should be welcoming more skilled and humanitarian migrants.
Of those who said no, 50% were concerned with preserving Australia’s natural resources such as water, 33% were concerned about pressure on infrastructure and housing, 6% were concerned about growth in Australia’s carbon emissions and 11% were concerned for unspecified reasons.
The results show that respondents recognise there are significant economic benefits from a larger population, such as improving our economic competitiveness and overcoming the challenge of an ageing population.
However, it also highlights concerns over rising house prices, traffic congestion and problems with public transport. Water shortages are also high on peoples mind. It is understandable that people are worried about squeezing 60 per cent more people into our cities and communities.
It is not surprising then that our political leaders have been coy in the last few weeks on the prospects of a larger Australia. Rudd last year said he believed in a “Big Australia” but by January was saying that he did not have a view on the issue. Treasurer Wayne Swan said that the projection of 35 million was just that, a projection and not a prediction. Tony Abbott says he is naturally in favour of immigration and population growth but has shied away from strongly advocating a larger population since becoming Opposition Leader.
The reality for both sides of politics is that one way or another they will have to come up with policy solutions to Australia’s long term demographic challenge.
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VECCI has advocated for strong population growth in order to mitigate the impacts on skills and labour shortages and the increased costs associated with our ageing population. VECCI is interested in maintaining an ongoing dialogue on this issue, and invites comment and contributions on Australia developing a population policy which would aid in the planning of public investment in infrastructure, sustainability, and health and education services.
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